Importation and Exportation of Poultry Meat Decline while the Trade Maintains a Favorable Balance

-In the first quarter, the amount of poultry on and off hand decline by a big margin. The price of chicken falls compared with that in the last year. The importation and exportation of poultry products decline with a remained favorable balance of trade.

-In the second quarter, the production of poultry meat will return to normal state with chichen price raised towars a more favorable exportation.

1. Exportation and Importtion of poultry products decline
The volume of exported poultry products in January and February is 83.8438 million dollars, decreasing 33.49% to the same mouths in previous year?ˉ the volume of importation,64.4822 million dollars, a 3.06% fall; the accumulated volume of net exportation, 21.3616 million dollars.
￠ù exportation and importation of poultry meat and entrails decline.

The exportation volume of poultry meat and entrails is 34.4967 million dollars
, accounting for 41.14% of the total volume of poultry products exportation, a fall of 33.57% to the previous same period; the total amount to the exportation is 27.5 thousand tons, a fall of 43.92% to the previous same period.

The countries and area to which exported include: Hong Kong, Japan, Saudi Arab, Russia and South Africa, the exportation volume 23.2 thousand tons, accounting for 84.34% of the total; exportations to the said countries and areas, except to Saudi Arab, decline with that to Russia by the biggest margin 87.74%.

The top ten exporters are: Shangdong, Guangdong, Liaoling, Henan, Jilin, Beijing, Heilongjiang, Fujian, Shanghai and Hebei, their exportation,34.1768 million dollars, accounts for 99.07% of the totality. Compared with the same period in the previous year, exportation from Shanghai, Guangdong, Jilin and Beijing decline by a big margin over 3%.

As to the manner of trading, 95.78% of the totality, 33.0406 million dollars, was conducted with the common manner; processing imported materials and other manners take small proportion.
Accumulated importation of poultry meat and entrails:76.1 thousand tons with a sum of 61.7954 million dollars, a rise of 11.64% and of 2.90% respectively to he same period in the previous year.
The main countries from which poultry meat and entrails are imported: US, Brazil, ARGENTINA AND Cam ada, with a sum of 61.5708 million dollars,99.64% of the totality. Compared with the same period in the previous year, there are a fall of 21.36% from and a ride of 690% from Canada.
￠ú exportation of processed poultry declines

The exportation volume: 13.9 thousand tons with 39.9772 million dollars, a fall of 40.29% and lf 36.90% respectively.

The main exported countries and areas: Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and the US. The exportation sum,39.5418 million dollars, accounts for 98.91% of the totality. Comparatively, there are a fall of 37.95% to Japan, 35% to Hong Kong and 13.34% to Singapore.

The top ten exporters of processed poultry: Shangdong, Beijing, Liaoling Shanghai, Hebei, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Tianjing, Jilin and Heilongjiang. Their exportation hits 39.7379 million dollars, accounting for 99.40% of the totality.

As to the trading manner, exportation with the common manner is 26.5975 million dollars, 66.53% of the totality; processing imported materials, 13.2866 million dollars, 33.24% of the totality.

There is little in the importation o f poultry processing, both in quantity and fund, the major targets of which are Jiangsu and Guangsong which account for 86.61%.
2. Analysis on the international market
￠ù price of poultry meat

In America, the average price of chicken in twelve cities in the first quarter in 2004 is 73.07 cent/pound, a 21.14% rise to the same period in previous year.

Georgia wharfs chicken averages at 70.61cent/pound, a rise of 14.02% to the same period last year. Up to the end of March,2004, the average price of chicken in the twelve cities rises increasingly to 75.60 cent/pound, the top in the past years, a rise of 25.96% to the same period in the previous year. The price of chicken on Georgia wharfs in the late March was 71.75 cent/pound, a rise of 14.60% to the same period in the previous year. The rise of poultry meat price in China?ˉs domestic market resulted mainly from the bullish economy in the US, the stronger demand of poultry meat as well as the increase of other poultry products exportation due to the rise of other products with high protein.

Because of the poultry disease occuring in Asian countries since the late January, Japan declare to suspend the importation of live poultry and their products from the countries including Viet Nam, Thailand, the Laos, Pakistan, China and Indonesia, etc. What?ˉs more, that Japan suspended its importation of beef from the US due to the mad cow disease in the late 2003 caused a decreasing stock, which gave rise to a severe rise of wholesale price of Brazil-produced chicken legs risen by 31.6%, China-produced,31.1%., Thailand-produced, having passed the Customs, 22.2%. On Feb 6th, the price of Japan-produced chicken chest risen by 15% to that in the last December.
￠ú Production and Trade

In the first two months o f2004, output of poultry meat in the US was 2.3971 million tons,1.6% higher than the same period in the previous year, mainly resulting from the fact that number of poultry slaughtered increased by 1.2%.

The output of poultry meat in the first quarter in 2004 was 3.7137 million tons, a rise of 5% to the same period in the previous year.

The temporary suspension of China?ˉs exportation of chicken to Japan leaves many chances for the exportation of Brazil?ˉs chicken. Brazilian exportation accounts for one third of the market followed by Thailand and China.

3. The prospect for the trade in the second quarter
￠ù International Situation
The price of poultry meat will remain rising. Because of the bullish US economy and slightly expensive feed, the price of poultry meat in the first quarter turned out higher than that in the same period in the past years. Although the output of poultry increases marginally, it won?ˉt bring about a quick fall in price so it will still rise in the second quarter.

There will be a smooth price of poultry meat in EU in the second quarter. The poultry-disease-striken Dutch, the second poultry meat producer to four, has not eliminated the disease until now. it has a direct impact on the output and exportation o f poultry meat of EU, so there won?ˉt be major change.

There will be an expected slight fall after rise in the rice of chicken in Japan. Japan suspended exportation of poultry and their products from Thailand, China,etc. since the poultry disease of large scale in Asia in the first quarter. The price of chicken in Japan has been increasingly rising so that the stock of chicken has been decreasing, which added to its rise in price in short time. The price will fall though by a small margin, with the elimination of the disease and the increasing of trading volume.

￠ú Domestic Situation
In the second quarter, the production will gradually return to normal state. Accordingly, the price of chicken will get a rise. The rising demand o f domestic cosumers, a better situation in exportation and the ride of price of feed material will add to the lost of poultry meat producing, which will consequently, bring about a rise poultry meat?ˉs price in domestic market.

Source: www.chinafeed.info