Forecast of main livestock
product market
China¡¯s livestock production still has a great margin to catch up
with the developed countries in terms of average personal consumption
though our pork and poultry eggs sits well above the world¡¯s average.
The world¡¯s main livestock producers and exporters, like Denmark,
New Zealand and the Netherlands, put over 40% of their livestock
production into international market. In addition, France, Canada,
Great Britain and the U.S.A distribute over 10% of their meat production
into world market. However, in 2002, China¡¯s export volume of the
meat products is 0.92 million tons that accounts for only1.37% of
total meat production.
Considering both increase in meat personal consumption and export,
the livestock production has great potential to going up. If China¡¯s
meat production per capita reach that of world, that is 81.8Kg/person£¬the
meat production would be 107.86 million tons and 117.59 million
tons while China¡¯s population will reach to 1.33 billion by the
year 2005 and 1.45 billion by the year 2015.
However, taking the overall economic development into account,
it is estimated that the average personal consumption on meat, egg
and milk will be 52kgs, 18kgs and 10kgs respectively by the year
2005, of which pork, beef and mutton and poultry meat will be 34kgs,
7kgs and 10kgs. The overall consumption of meat, eggs and milk will
be 69.50million tons, 23.93 million tons and 13.30 million tons,
of which pork, beef and mutton and poultry meat will be 45.26 million
tons, 9.76 million tons and 13.83 million tons accordingly. By the
year 2015, national personal average consumption of meat, eggs and
milk will be 61kgs, 20kgs and 23kgs, of which pork, beef and mutton
and poultry meat will be 38kgs, 9kgs and 13kgs. The overall national
consumption of meat, eggs and milk will be 88.32 million tons, 29.16
million tons and 33.22 million tons of which pork, beef and mutton
and poultry meat will be 54.97 million tons 13.32 million tons and
19.18 million tons.

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