China’s swine and pork production forecast to rise in 2005
China’s pork production for 2005 is forecast to increase 4.8 percent from 47.3 MMT in 2004 to 49.6 MMT, slightly up from the previous forecast of 4.5 percent in the 2004 annual report. Post also adjusted upwards the pig crop production numbers in the PSD table from the previous forecast of 619 million head to 651 million head, and for 2004 from the previous forecast of 608 million head to 624 million head, based on NSB recently published 2003 slaughter and average carcass weight numbers. A reversal of the downward trend for pork’s share of total meat production continued during 2004 driven by higher swine and pork prices. According to MOA data, the average wholesale pork price in 2004 was $1.61 per kg, up 16 percent from a year ago. The average retail pork price in 2004 was $1.64 per kg, up 29 percent from 2003. Hog prices on average in 2004 climbed 45 percent. China’s swine and grain conversion in the third quarter of 2004 was 1:6.49 (i.e., the price of 1 kg of hog compared with 1 kg of corn) well above the profitable ratio of 1:5.5, encouraging farmers to increase sows numbers. The sow ratio (i.e., the number of sows in the swine population) in 2005 is forecast at 9.8 percent of total pig inventory, slightly higher than the previous year. China’s desire ratio is 8 percent. These factors would lead to pork production increases continuing in 2005 at least at the same pace of 2004. China’s pork production increase is not the result of increased carcass weight, but a higher ratio of swine slaughtered. China’s average pork carcass weight in 2005 is forecast to remain 76 kg as in the previous year. It is about 12 kg lower than the average carcass weight in the US. More use of protein feed has resulted in shortening swine fattening period.
Source: www.engormix.com