1. Continuous growth of chicken meat output
Since the latter half of 2003, the chicken price has increased in China and the economic profit of animal husbandry has significantly increased. Both rural households and enterprises have gained profit in chicken husbandry. This has stimulated the initiative in chicken production. It is estimated that chicken meat output will continue to increase in 2004. Due to the increase of feed cost, it will restrict the trend of production expansion for husbandry households.

2. Poultry meat price will maintain the trend of stability with moderate increase
Along with the approaching of New Year and the Spring Festival, the trend of chicken meat price will continue to rice until the Spring Festival. Afterwards, along with the influence of corn price, chicken meat price might have a process of going down. It is estimated that due to the decline of corn output, decline in corn inventory, the drop of corn export and the influence of state policy, corn price will be stable with moderate increase. This will cause feed cost to increase, therefore, the price of chicken meat will maintain the trend of stability with moderate increase. Due to the continuous and stable growth of Chinese chicken meat output, the increase extent of chicken meat price will not be very great.

3. China will not increase chicken meat import by a big margin and the export situation will change for the better.

In 2004, the import of chicken meat to China will implement stricter new hygiene and inspection standards. The new standards require that a zero of Salmonella and E. coli in the raw materials of poultry meat product. China will return all poultry meat product when this requirement is not met. The state will implement total volume control over chicken import. It is estimated that the import of chicken meat in China from foreign countries in 2004 will not increase greatly as compared with that of 2003.

In August 2003, Japan had removed the ban of import poultry meat import from China and shortly afterward Malaysia had recovered the import of frozen chicken from China. Japan and Malaysia are the first and fourth markets f Chinese chicken meat export. It is estimated that the situation of chicken meat export from China will turn for the better.